John Doe takes a look at the conundrum that is tonights semi-final 2nd leg between Burton Albion and Manchester City. Highlighting two value bets in this tricky little midweek fixture.
City were devastating in the first leg with Jesus bagging 4 goals in the 9-0 romp. We can expect to see a changed Citizens side but even so, Nigel Clough’s men will need to beware another blitz.
There are a number of players who will look to make an impression tonight on Sky Sports. Of course, they’ll want to send a message to Guardiola that they should be the next young player to break into the first time.
Foden, Zinchenko, De Bruyne, Mendy and Jesus are all expected to play a part in the game and that will help any new faces settle down into the match.
The biggest aggregate winning margin in League Cup history is 11 goals and you would imagine the team would enjoy breaking yet another record.
Another 9 goal drubbing is unlikely, as much out of some kind of strange guilty feeling than anything overly technical. The weakened team obviously results in a lower supremacy for the Premier League Champions.
The most like scorelines according to our models are 4-0 and 5-0 City wins. We will take two bets tonight that require City to score at least 4 goals to reward visitors.
First, a spread bet buy on the number of Man City goals at 3.35. The downside seems limited to 1.35 goals here in all likelihood whereas the upside could quite conceivably be 2 or 3 goals.
Secondly, we will have a small bet on the 4-0 correct score as it’s currently the scoreline offering the most value according to our predictions.
How we placed our bet
What time/date is the match?
7.45pm on Wednesday 23rd Jan
What’s the tip, bookmaker and odds?
BUY Man City Goals with Sporting Index @ 3.35
Bet 4-0 Correct Score with BetVictor @ 19/2
What stakes for the bets?
BUY Man City Goals – 1pt per goal (max loss = 3.35pts if City fail to score)
Correct Score 4-0 – 0.25pt
Is the match on available on TV/Sat in the UK?
Yes, it will be shown on SkySports Football. The program will start at 7.30pm.