Roger Federer aside the superstars are back this week for the ATP Monte Carlo, the first biggie of the clay court season. Picking an outright winner looks too tough but we’ll be trying to find some value on the match odds where we can. To that end we like to take on the legends as that is where the big prices lie. Former Grand Slam winners over 30 are just begging to be opposed when the odds are big enough.
That brings us to Novak Djokovic v Philipp Kohlschreiber. Djokovic has only lost 3 times this season and he was heavily odds-on each time. Two of those defeats were to Roberto Bautista Agut – who faces Nadal this week– and sandwiched in between those was the loss at Indian Wells versus today’s opponent.
In his 30s himself Kohlschreiber is not exactly the emerging young gun we’d ideally back against Novak but he is adept on clay and will obviously be buoyed by the straight sets victory over Djokovic last time. There are also question marks over the Serb mentally, seemingly giving up in the third set against Bautista Agut and if things go against him here he might do the same.
Overall there’s no question that Djokovic is the better player but that doesn’t mean he won’t have an off day. As is appropriate our investment will be small but we will make a second bet if and when Djokovic breaks serve or takes the first set. At that stage Kohlschreiber’s odds will increase significantly and in the two matches against Bautista Agut this proved an extremely profitable strategy.
If you can’t monitor in-play you can still take the straight 5-1+ on the German pre-match via the Betfair Exchange.
How we placed our bet
Tournament: ATP Monte Carlo Tennis
Betting Market: Match Odds
Selection: Philipp Kohlschreiber
Bookie: Bet Hard
Stake: 0.25 Pts
Published on: Apr 16, 2019 @ 05:06