The women’s final is set and we’ll be taking a look at Halep v Williams later on but today it’s all about the men’s semi-finals. The main tie is of course Nadal versus Federer. Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam where Federer has the better head to head against Nadal, in the others and overall Nadal has the advantage.
Federer’s edge is slim here though, he’s 2-1 up with all their Wimbledon clashes coming in finals. Nadal won the last time, 11 years ago now, and he defeated Federer in this year’s French Open. Federer did get the better of Nadal in last year’s Australian Open final though so it’s a tough one to call. We backed Nadal at the end of the first week knowing that this match-up was likely though so we’re going to stick with that.
Before that Roberto Bautista-Agut, who will near or maybe eclipse his highest ranking next week, meets Novak Djokovic, the world number one and current Wimbledon champion. Nobody gives Bautista-Agut a chance and even he didn’t expect to get this far as he has had to cancel his own stag do as a result of his success here. However, when we look a bit closer there is reason to believe that the 9/1 shot on the match odds could have some success.
The head-to-head record is not a terrible one for the Spaniard, trailing 7-3 to Djokovic overall, primarily due to the Serb winning their first five meetings. Their last three matches have seen the winner concede set one then go on to take the match. The most recent two of these were this year and Bautista-Agut won both so it would be irrational to think he doesn’t have a shout. We were initially simply going to take a punt on the 9/1 that’s around but on further reflection we’ve decided to take the 55/1 on the outright with Matchbook.
If Bautista-Agut can beat Djokovic he can certainly win the whole thing, especially if Nadal and Federer tear strips off each other in the other semi-final. Even if they don’t we could be in a decent cash out position especially as we’ve already got Rafa on our side. With the topsy-turvy nature of their most recent clashes in mind we’ll also back the Spaniard in-play should he lose the first set or get broken early on. We’ll get some very decent match odds should that happen even though such an event has meant little of late between these two players.
How we placed our bet
Tournament: Wimbledon Tennis
Betting Market: Outright
IN-PLAY – depending on early service break or first set loss for Bautista-Agut
Published on: Jul 12, 2019 @ 04:39