We’ll get this out of the way now, University College Dublin are the worst team in the Irish Premier Division. Investing in their success may seem a radical idea then but there is more to their match against Derry City tonight than initially meets the eye. We will therefore play it safe and use a free bet for this game which sees UCD priced as 11/1 outsiders versus their visitors.
We’ll start of by looking at Derry who sit fourth in the table but could be much closer to leaders Dundalk if they’d been more ruthless on their travels. They’ve racked up more draws in away games than any other side in the division sharing the points in seven of their 14 matches. They’ve also drawn three of their last 6 league games winning only twice, at home on both occasions. Victories, when they’ve come, have been against sides Derry would expect to beat, the last one coming a month ago against Cork who are the worst home team in the Premier Division. The second worst home side is Finn Harps who hosted and beat Derry last Friday.
It was Finn Harps who played a part in the UCD mini revival of late too. The Harps were favourites for that game with the home side 5/1 outsiders on that occasion. It was a match we looked at but with 12 successive defeats for UCD there were no odds where they could be deemed backable back then. They managed a 1-0 win though and then came away from Derry with a 0-0 draw before beating Bohemians at home at even bigger odds. They were then soundly spanked by Shamrock Rovers before having a draw taken from them when Waterford paid them a visit and hit an 86th minute winner.
If you’re feeling particularly adventurous you could take the 11/1 but even for a free bet that could be a bit of a stretch. There is enough evidence though to suggest that Derry could end up frustrated when the final whistle goes so we’ll back UCD and draw with 3/1 commonly available.
How we placed our bet
Event: League of Ireland Football – UCD v Derry
Betting Market: Double Chance
Selection: UCD and draw
Bookie: Wherever you have a free bet
Published on: Aug 2, 2019 @ 09:40