Shot counts, how much do they tell us? Plenty with a little context is our answer. Arsenal have managed to lose the shot count in both of their matches this season.
Their 6 points taken from those games has masked what is still a fragile Arsenal side. The fact they played Newcastle and Burnley and managed to lose the shot count should be noted. They lost out 8-9 against a basket case Toon away and 15-18 to Sean Dyche’s men at home.
The fact they conceded so many shots against more defensive opponents highlights the fact that there is definitely still work for Emery to do. He managed to rally his troops well last season in the big games at home but away it was pretty bleak.
An away record of W7, D4 and L8 put The Gunners as the 8th best away team in the league. Liverpool at home on the other hand were 17, 2 and 0. Not that much has changed, David Luiz and a promising display from a loanee aren’t enough and certainly haven’t had long enough to make a seismic difference.
Liverpool have managed to win their shot count in each of their four games this season which include a Super Cup against Chelsea and Community Shield against Man City. Alongside their home game against Norwich and away game to Southampton.
Here are the counts for Liverpool shots and shots on target from the 4 matches;
Neutral v Man City
Home v Norwich
Neutral v Chelsea
Away v Southampton
Observant readers will note they have conceded their fair share of shots too but the opposition are much more attacking than Newcastle or Burnley. They have limited the on target efforts of City and Chelsea to 5 over 180 minutes of football but we are veering off point.
The bets in this game are formed by the opinion Arsenal will allow 15+ shots to Liverpool and of those we can expect 40%+ on target if the previous 4 games are a reliable indicator. That’s a small sample but it actually is very similar to Liverpool’s number for last season.
Alas, here are the bets;
- 1pt Stake – Liverpool Over 6.5 Shots On Target @ 11/10 with MrGreen
- 1pt Stake – Liverpool Over 15.5 Shots @ 3/4 with MrGreen
Published on: Aug 24, 2019 @ 08:57