Chelsea v Liverpool
16:30 Sunday 22nd September 2019
Today’s Prediction of the Day from the Green Room comes in the Premier League game between Chelsea and Liverpool. The pair both suffered defeats mid-week in the Champions League and will be looking to get back into the swing of things domestically after good wins during gameweek 5.
Last time out Chelsea won 5-2 at Wolves which on the face of it looks like a fantastic result. A little deeper digging though and we see that they only edged key metrics. Only having two more shots on target and one more important pass being made in the final third.
The expected goals differential here was closer to 1 than 3 in favour of Chelsea. The Blues’ opener was scored with a wonder strike from defender Tomori and that will be hard for him to replicate again let alone on a regular basis. They were clinical on the day but they gave up chances and today against Liverpool they will be more severely punished.
Klopp’s men conceded first against Newcastle last weekend from an incredible finish from Willems, rather than being outplayed. The game then saw Liverpool win the possession count 76-24, the goal attempts 21-8 and the shots on goal count 9-1.
The performance appeared pretty comfortable and there are definitely more gears available to the Merseysiders. The game in Naples ended 2-0 but anyone who watched it will agree that was massively flattering for the Italians. So it’s the underlying recent performances that we need to take into account when predicting this match today.
Chelsea matches are averaging 4.4 goals so far this term and that’s the joint highest in the league. 4 of their 5 games have seen both teams scoring and over 3.5 goals.
Liverpool have the joint-best defence in the league conceding just 0.8 goals per game and are on this terrific run of 14 consecutive league wins. Will Chelsea manage to breach Alisson’s net today?
Mason Mount could miss out and that would be a huge miss for Lampard and Chelsea, his pressing and dynamic movement in the final third is hard to defend against. They will also miss Emerson and Rudiger (2 of their best back four) and that could be even more problematic. Kante is expected to feature but can’t be expected to be fully match fit after such time out.
Liverpool will have their best 11 available bar goalkeeper and there should be enough to get the chocolates in London today. It’s not often we will have the opportunity to back this team at odds against and today we do. There are simply too many mismatches when it comes to the Liverpool attack and Chelsea’s unsettled and conceding-freely defence, Reds win this.
How we placed our bet
Bet of the Day
Liverpool to win
Published on: Sep 22, 2019 @ 08:25